Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo: Who Will Win the Holidays?

The holiday season is big business in the video game industry. Black Friday Christmas see a sharp rise in the sales of consumer electronics, and the turning weather has everyone inside wanting to use them. As a result, the quarter has traditionally always been a battleground between rival manufacturers to win over the minds and wallets of the gaming community, leading to sharply priced discounts and the release of exciting new content to play. This year’s shaping up to be a particularly intense battle, so let’s review all three of the major console manufacturers and see who’s most likely to end on top.

Sony

Sony’s PS4 has run away with this generation, not only continuing to record exceptional sales but also continuing to increase the gap over its main rival, the Xbox One. Yet if there’s been one chink in Sony’s armor throughout the console’s lifespan, it has been the holiday season. In a break from the rule of thumb that applied during the PS3 era, Sony hasn’t really managed to line up any of its major exclusives for the fall, choosing instead to rely on third-party releases to sustain the console over the past few years. In truth, though, not only have exclusives played less of a role in determining the market-leading console this generation, missing the holiday window has hardly any negative effect PS4’s commercial performance.

However, with Microsoft attempting to take back the initiative with its souped-up Xbox One X console, and Nintendo’s hugely popular Switch finally more readily available, Sony’s position as top dog this holiday is far from assured. So what does it have up its sleeve?

In regards to new content, the answer is not much. Two of its biggest exclusives of the year, Horizon Zero Dawn and Nioh, do both launch as complete editions in the upcoming weeks, and the former also has a new expansion, The Frozen Wilds. Other than that, though, it seems Sony is content with leaning on its already excellent library of exclusives. Elsewhere, Sony’s timed-exclusivity and various marketing deals have ensured the console is first to receive various DLC and additional content, as in the case of Destiny 2 and Call of Duty.

Microsoft

To say Microsoft has been left in the wake of Sony’s PS4 this generation wouldn’t be necessarily inaccurate, but it would be a mistake to write off the Xbox One this holiday season. The brand still commands a huge following, and Microsoft has traditionally done very well in November and December thanks to brilliant marketing campaigns and attractive console bundles. We’re already seeing some very sharply priced Xbox One S bundles that include a big third-party release like Call of Duty: WWII. So sharply priced, in fact, that it’s undercutting the PS4, and it’s likely that these sorts of offers are going to drive the lion’s share of sales for Microsoft, rather than its more expensive Xbox One X console. Especially when one considers both console’s price points, $180 with a game versus $500 and no game — the Xbox One X is, perhaps, only likely to appeal to a niche audience. Yet there’s no question that Microsoft’s premium console is still going to be a huge draw for consumers hungry for a big graphical upgrade.

Microsoft’s biggest trump card this fall is its exclusive deal with Bluehole Studio to bring across the phenomenon that is PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds (PUBG). A huge scoop for the Xbox One, PUBG adds a massive incentive for people to pick up either version of the console after all the positive press the game has received. That being said, it hardly pushes the Xbox One X’s graphical capabilities. There’s also the slight issue that, since the PC community already has the game, there’s no draw for PC owners wanting to purchase a console for an alternate library to choose Xbox over PlayStation.

Ultimately, both in the case of cheap bundles and expensive premium hardware, Microsoft is relying on consumers purchasing hardware specifically to play third-party software, with PUBG the only exclusive point of difference. Only time will tell whether that proves an effective enough strategy to distract consumers from the lack notable content yet to be announced for 2018.

Nintendo

Of all the big takeaways from this year in gaming, Nintendo’s reemergence as a major powerhouse in the video game industry has to be the biggest. The Nintendo Switch looked like a slick piece of kit from its earliest reveal, but nobody could have predicted just how popular it’s proven to be. And not just the hardware, either, because as much of a factor as its hybrid functionality has been in driving sales, the software has been hugely impressive too. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild is now joined by the recently released Super Mario Odyssey as the highest rated game of the current generation. The Mario brand carries so much weight in the gaming industry that Odyssey is surely going to prove a tremendous sales point for Nintendo this holiday season.

There’s so much content to enjoy on Switch already that the console might very well be experiencing one of the best launches we’ve seen in the console space. We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention other excellent titles such as Splatoon 2, ARMS, Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle, and, of course, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. There’s also the upcoming Xenoblade 2 to look forward to, and the future promise of mainline Pokemon and Metroid titles.

However, by far and away the biggest contributing factor to Nintendo’s ability to dominate this holiday season is the fact that the console is finally readily available to purchase. Nintendo’s dire production issues have really choked its ability to move substantial numbers in the console’s first six months at retail. Only in Europe has the Switch existed on store shelves for any substantial amount time, proving comparatively impossible to purchase in the US without lightning fast reactions at the drop of limited stock. But these woes seem to now be a thing of the past, with Nintendo assuring that Switch stock will remain plentiful moving forward.

Who’s Going to Win?

Each of the big three has a major selling point to tip the scales in their favour this holiday season: Sony’s huge stable of exclusives and the promise of more shortly to be added to the library. Microsoft’s uber powerful premium Xbox One X console and the launch of PUBG. Nintendo’s replenished stock and fever pitch excitement over Super Mario Odyssey.

There isn’t much separating them, but based on recent NPD hardware trends, and the release of a critically acclaimed entry to the industry’s most beloved and instantly recognizable character, we’d have to give the nod to Nintendo. It has already been revealed that Odyssey sales have been the fastest in Mario history. We saw similarly impressive figures for Breath of the Wild, too, and so you’d have to imagine the consumers that previously weren’t able to get their hands on Switch – of which there were many – are likely to purchase both games. Especially given that Breath of the Wild’s story DLC is soon to be launched, it’s more than likely the spotlight of attention will once again return to Zelda, driving sales in the process.

That all being said, it’s too early to accurately predict the commercial reception to the Xbox One X, which could yet prove our suspicions about its price and lack of exclusive content making it a niche device off the mark. Similarly, PlayStation’s immense brand power and content make it hard to write off. One thing is for sure, Nintendo’s recent resurgence has made this holiday a thrilling and extremely close three horse race.