Destiny is set to make an impact upon its release this year no matter what the outcome. Either it will be a large disappointment or, according to research, the biggest game of the year.
Cowen Research Group’s Doug Creutz used “Cowen’s Ordometer” (a formula that compares games’ post-launch sales to pre-orders) to determine how Destiny will fare in sales figures. The result is that the game could sell 10 million to 15 million copies, equating to about $600 – $900 million in revenue. This rather large number means that Destiny has a very strong chance to become the top-selling game of the year.
The Cowen’s Ordometer is based on six years of Amazon bestseller data and NPD’s reported physical sales of games. Cowen measures the data every week from the E3 to the end of the year for Xbox and PlayStation consoles. Creutz explained that Destiny has the highest Ordometer score of any game tracked over the last four years. It could even outsell Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare. No joke.
Advanced Warfare is currently tracking similarly to Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 from 2012. Black Ops 2 had a slow preorder start in 2012 ended up being the highest-selling game in the series’ history. So Advanced Warfare looks to sell well, as Call of Duty games always do, but only time will tell who Activision’s new crown jewel will be.
Destiny will release on September 9th for PS4, PS3, Xbox One and Xbox 360.